A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
